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The Australian Dollar got an unexpected boost from a surprisingly strong consumer spending report, but limited follow-through suggests few expect domestic fundamentals will continue to improve through the foreseeable future. Domestic Retail Sales showed impressive strength through the month of November, and many expect that aggressive fiscal stimulus packages announced in December will continue to support consumption. Yet analyst likewise cited fast-falling utility and fuel prices as a major driver of retail gains—leaving comparatively little hope for sustained improvement.
Elsewhere, Australian Trade Balance numbers were substantially worse than expected; sharp drops in metal ore exports and comparatively stable imports halved the trade surplus. A fast deterioration in global economic conditions poses great risks to demand for Australian exports. As demand for metal and other key industrial commodities falls, Australian export industries—and by extension the domestic currency—are likely to feel the effects.
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