Australian Retail Sales Report Not Enough to Boost Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar got an unexpected boost from a surprisingly strong consumer spending report, but limited follow-through suggests few expect domestic fundamentals will continue to improve through the foreseeable future.

The Australian Dollar got an unexpected boost from a surprisingly strong consumer spending report, but limited follow-through suggests few expect domestic fundamentals will continue to improve through the foreseeable future. Domestic Retail Sales showed impressive strength through the month of November, and many expect that aggressive fiscal stimulus packages announced in December will continue to support consumption. Yet analyst likewise cited fast-falling utility and fuel prices as a major driver of retail gains—leaving comparatively little hope for sustained improvement.

Elsewhere, Australian Trade Balance numbers were substantially worse than expected; sharp drops in metal ore exports and comparatively stable imports halved the trade surplus. A fast deterioration in global economic conditions poses great risks to demand for Australian exports. As demand for metal and other key industrial commodities falls, Australian export industries—and by extension the domestic currency—are likely to feel the effects.

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US Dollar Strength May Hinge Upon Risk Trends Once Again

The US dollar ended the week mixed across the majors, as the currency tumbled against the British pound, which was strong across the board, but also slipped versus some of the commodity dollars on a brief pick up in risk appetite

The US dollar ended the week mixed across the majors, as the currency tumbled against the British pound, which was strong across the board, but also slipped versus some of the commodity dollars on a brief pick up in risk appetite. However, the US dollar’s biggest rally of the week was on Friday, after data showed that US non-farm payrolls fell by a whopping 524,000 in December and brought the cumulative total of job losses in 2008 to 2.589 million, the most since 1945. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose more than expected to a 16-year high of 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent. So why did the US dollar rally in response? There are a few reasons.

First, most of the major currency pairs remain within massive ranges, but major support levels for the US dollar helped to stabilize its decline. From a fundamental perspective, it is necessary to consider the fact that interest rates in the US can't really go any lower since the Federal Reserve has already cut the fed funds target to a record low range of 0.0 percent - 0.25 percent, and it is that interest rate dynamic (or lack of it), that is allowing the greenback to brush off this abysmal data. Furthermore, a sharp drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and surge in the Japanese yen on the same day suggest that risk aversion is lingering in the financial markets.

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Dollar / Swiss Franc Bottom at 1.0861 Should Hold

-Bullish against 1.0861, target at 1.15

-Short term support at 1.1067

The USDCHF fell in 5 waves from the November high (1.2303) and a correction of that decline is underway now.

There is a bullish opportunity against 1.0861 and the initial target would be 1.15 (61.8% of 1.2303-1.0367). Since the decline from 1.2303 is an impulse, a drop to new lows is expected once the a-b-c rally is complete.

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British Pound Due to Retrace Gains Next Week?

The British pound remained relatively strong on Friday, as it surged against the euro but slipped versus the US dollar toward support at 1.5135. The moves have been somewhat surprising in light of the fact that the Bank of England cut the Bank Rate to the lowest level since the bank was founded in 1694. However, the BOE’s 50 basis point reduction was in line with expectations, so there was no surprise factor coming in to play.

Meanwhile, though the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) subsequent policy statement was quite bearish on economic conditions in the UK and abroad, they did not give any indication that they would cut rates again during their February 5 meeting. At this juncture, actual rate cuts are having little impact on the currency markets, as traders are more focused on comparative long-term interest rate expectations. Next week, there will be no key UK economic indicators released, but it will be very important to watch sentiment trends as we’ve started to see signs emerge that risk aversion is making a comeback, which tends to work in favor of US dollar and Japanese yen strength.

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Euro Pulls Back from Resistance

Declines Likely Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

The euro fell versus all of the major currencies on Friday, despite the fact data showed that retail sales growth in the Euro-zone actually rose 0.6 percent during the month of November. However, it is important to note that the annual rate was still negative for the sixth straight month at -1.5 percent, indicating that the economic situation remains dour.

When taking this into considering with the decline in Euro-zone CPI estimates below the European Central Bank’s 2.0 percent target, steady increases in unemployment, and increasingly pessimistic consumer and business confidence, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will do as the market’s expect: cut interest rates on January 15 by 50 basis points to 2.00 percent to match the 2005 record low.

This easily leaves the 7:45 ET announcement as one of the most important pieces of event risk next week, but traders will also have to look out for comments by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet during his post-meeting press conference at 8:30 ET. Mr. Trichet is one of the most opinionated central bank chiefs around, and suggestions that the ECB will continue to cut rates have the potential to lead the euro far lower. On the other hand, if the ECB goes the route of the BOE and signals that they may leave rates unchanged during their next meeting, the currency could actually rally.

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A Look At Online Forex Brokers

An online forex broker is a firm that facilitates retail trading using Internet technologies. Global Forex Trading (GFT), one of the popular online forex brokers. It provides retail traders with a free demo trading account, allows users to open a live account, gives live help, provides software called DealBook FX 2, and allows viewing of account documents. (DealBook FX 2 can be downloaded for the demo trading account).

Gain Capital Group's Online Forex offers 200:1 leverage. In some cases, the total return on investment is higher due to leverage. For example, with $1000 cash in a margin account, the investor can control up to $200,000 in notional value. Of course, trading on leverage magnifies both the investor's profits and losses.

GCI Financial Ltd. offers commission-free online trading in forex. GCI offers Internet trading software, fast and efficient execution, and 0.5% margin requirements. This broker offers USD or Euro denominated trading accounts. The spreads are 3 pips in EUR/USD and USD/JPY, and are 4 to 5 pips for other major commissions. Clients can hedge by opening positions in the same currency in opposite directions. Risk to the investor is limited to the deposited funds. Market analysis and research, real-time charts, and forex trading signals are available at no charge.

ACM, part of the REFCO group, offers 3 pip spreads on all major currencies, which works out to between 0.02% and 0.03% on the dollar value. They also offer commission-free trading, and forex trading with a 1% margin, which means that a trader can control $1,000,000 with $10,000 in his account.

There are many online forex brokers that offer free demo accounts for potential forex traders to practice trading. It is only a matter of registering and starting demo trading to get a feel for forex trading. In addition, at most sites, traders can find free forex news to assist them with their trade strategies.

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The Yin And The Yang Of Markets

I am reading a fantastic book on trading, first published in 1924, by Richard D. Wyckoff, titled "How I Trade and Invest in Stocks & Bonds". Although most of the examples in the book pertain to stocks, the insights into the nature of trading are relevant no matter what instrument you choose to trade.

I am particularly drawn to the authors' appreciation of the ebb and flow nature of markets and how this perspective can be used to great effect.
"It is difficult to over-emphasize the importance of studying the technical position, particularly when making a speculative commitment. Many people may say, "What is a weak or a strong technical position?" My reply is, in brief, that a stock is in a weak technical position on the bull side when it has been purchased and is held by a large number of outside speculators; when most of these are looking for a profit; when the price of the stock has advanced to a point where no further buying can be stimulated for the time being. It stands to reason that when buying power is exhausted a stock must decline, no matter how strong its finances, management or earning power."

"On the other hand, a stock is in a weak technical position on the short side when the bears have exhausted their ammunition by selling all they can afford and when the buying power of investment and speculative purchasers is such that it resists the pressure of the bears; in other words, when demand overcomes supply. The weakness in such a position is found in the fact that all those who are short are potential bulls; they must, sooner or later, cover their commitments in order to close their trades. They do not wish to remain short indefinitely."…. "Bears, after they have sold short are an element of strength, not of weakness."
Perhaps the nature of all markets is best described by the Chinese Yin Yang symbol.
In every bull move, and in every bear decline, are the seeds of their own destruction.

[ForexGen Money Manager]

An individual who is responsible for the entire financial portfolio of another individual or another entity. A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.

Benefits of being a Money Manager with [ForexGen]:

* Providing three different commission sources.
* Weekly commission plan.
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* Fixed percentage of the profits.
* P = k * D “P=Profit, k=Variable Parameter, D=Deposits”

The money manager gets a fixed percentage of the profit previously agreed upon with the client for managing the client funds as a bonus feature.

The most competitive trading conditions:

* 2 pips spread on six currency pairs.
* Providing online trading services without maintenance margin, margin call and no automatic closing of positions below the initial margin on weekdays for accounts with initial equity of up to $1 million US. The margin level have to be recognized Fridays at 23:00 CET and before public holidays.
* Leverages up to 1:200 for accounts up to $1 million US.
* Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.